Archive for December, 2011

As expected, the past year was an exciting one for mobile tech. I did reasonably well on my predictions for 2011, but now it’s time to power up the crystal ball and gaze at what 2012 will bring. Make no mistake, the coming year will bring much change to the fast-paced mobile tech landscape. Companies will continue to battle for consumer dollars as both computing and mobile broadband advances put even more power in the devices we carry around with us and even the ones we wear.

• Wearable computing becomes the next mobile frontier. This year saw an increase in the number of viable smart devices that can be worn on a wrist, but 2012 will see greater consumer adoption of them. Watches such as the MetaWatch, InPulse and WIMM have set the stage and others will follow. I expect Sony to take another crack at this market after its mediocre LiveView watch. Motorola has already made a play here in 2011 with the MotoActv but will add another model or improve the current one. And I’m not counting Apple out here either: Adding Bluetooth to the iPod nano would be an ideal way to interact with an iPhone to see messages, or even utilize Siri. Note that Bluetooth 4.0 will power most of these devices in 2012.
• We’ll remotely connect to our smart homes. I’m an early adopter in this category, having in 2010 enabled a home automation system that I can tap via my smartphone. Next year, more will do so and the idea of a “smart home” will be a term that most consumers are familiar with. Trying to tap the growing number of smartphone users, companies will aggressively compete for the business of installing sensors in the home and offering software and services to monitor them. But more people will test their own do-it-yourself solutions due to falling costs of sensors, networked cameras and simple, low-cost software to communicate with a smart home.
• A jump in wireless home broadband adoption. With two LTE networks in the U.S., plus a fast HSPA+ option in T-Mobile, carriers will offer wireless home broadband solutions at appealing prices. I anticipate seeing wireless bundles of home and mobile broadband on single bills that cost less than wired broadband paired with mobile data plans. Instead of opting for DSL or fiber connections, we’ll see the beginnings of homeowners “cutting the cord” on home broadband, creating more demand for spectrum.
• Windows Phone usage grows, but slower than expected. Microsoft will make headway in smartphone platform market share in 2012, but still won’t see double-digit share in 2012. It will, however, surpass BlackBerry market share for phones sold in 2012. Windows 8 will actually help create demand for Windows Phone in the second half of the year as desktop upgraders will want the Metro user interface on their phones for a unified experience.

• Windows tablets in 2012 will sell like Android tablets did in 2011. Windows fans will trumpet the success of Windows on a consumer tablet this coming year, but the total sales of such devices will be less than 10 million units from all hardware makers combined. The iPad was the king of tablets in 2011 due to a strong ecosystem and intuitive interface and won’t be dethroned in 2012. Tablet choice for consumers next year will be iPad first, Android second and Windows third.
• Research In Motion will no longer exist as we know it today. I’d like to be wrong on this, as competition is good for all, but RIM’s missteps and late reactions to competition finally exact a toll: By year-end, I suspect the company will be purchased, mainly for its patents, or will refocus as a services-oriented entity.
• Nokia uses Symbian as a backup plan (but doesn’t call it Symbian). Although Nokia is using Windows Phone as its primary platform for smartphones, it continues to mature Symbian in the face of underwhelming Windows Phone sales. Without momentum and in the face of growing iOS and Android sales, the platform won’t fare any better than it did in 2011.
• The patent wars worsen. This year was marked with more high-profile patent cases than I can remember in the mobile space. The situation won’t get better in 2012; it will worsen as platforms are now less disruptive and show more parity. With fewer ways to differentiate from the competition, lawsuits will multiply. However, I do expect that of all the companies involved in such suits, Samsung and Apple, will come to terms in 2012. Samsung will pay an undisclosed amount to Apple and will have to heavily modify the look and feel of their customized user interface software.
• Dual-core devices will outsell quad-core devices. Although dual-core chips only began to power smartphones and tablets in 2011, they’ll be used more often in 2012, even though quad-core chips are here now. The power of four cores simply isn’t needed in lower-cost phones and tablets. Think of Amazon’s Kindle Fire, the Barnes Noble Nook Tablet and other devices that don’t require such power, cost or reduced battery life. Remember that throwing hardware in a device doesn’t solve software or usability problems.
• Apple’s next iPhone will be the iPhone 4GS. The company has wisely waited for two things before bringing 4G support to its handset: efficient radios supporting both 3G and 4G technologies and widespread deployment of LTE networks. These problems will disappear in 2012 and 4G will be one of the big features of the next phone. I don’t expect the general design of the hardware to change, however. When the iPhone 4GS arrives, it will be priced the same as today’s 4S. That old model will be priced at $99 and the old iPhone 4 will be free on contract.
• There will be an iPad Pro available in 2012. The iPad 2 will continue on as a current model in 2012, but see a price reduction, while a double-resolution iPad Pro will launch this coming year. The new Pro model will be priced the same as the current iPad 2. With a price drop for the current iPad 2, Apple will see no need to create a 7-inch iPad for $199 and up, although I will still want such a beast for several reasons. There’s the off-chance that Apple retires the iPod touch so as not to compete on price with the reduced-cost iPad and because iPhone sales will continue to siphon off potential iPod touch buyers.
• Google will split off Motorola not long after its purchase goes though. This may not happen in 2012, but I expect the announcement of it to take place next year. Google can’t own a hardware company and compete with its hardware partners. It knows this and will split Motorola off with the provision that it retains Motorola’s mobile patents for use in protecting any Android partner.

• Android’s momentum will continue thanks to Android 4.0. The new platform will be seen by many as more comparable to iOS, which will keep selling phones and begin to finally build a large following for Android tablets. Even so, developers will continue to generally make apps for iOS first and will make far more money as a collective group. However, the adoption of Android 4.0 will be the impetus for noticeable improvements in the quality and availability of Android apps.
• Hybrid apps with HTML5 will be the norm. The standards for HTML5 are still in motion so native apps will continue to be stronger than web-based apps. But as in 2011, many of the native apps on smartphones will use HTML5 as a base with a native wrapper around them. With the number of HTML5 compatible handsets expected by 2013, we’ll see momentum grow for true web apps on low-end phones.
• Intel will announce that 2013 is the year it really gets into the mobile market.The song has remained the same for the past few years, but Intel still hasn’t cracked the fast-growing mobile market. It will see more success in 2012, especially with tablets, but still will be considered an also-ran to ARM-powered devices in 2012.
• We’ll see a smaller Kinect in 2012, with expectations that such technology fits in a mobile device the following year. The promise of gesture-based mainstream interfaces began in late 2010 as Microsoft debuted Kinect. A smaller version for the Xbox will arrive before the 2012 holiday season and Microsoft will demonstrate an integrated prototype that works with Windows Phone or a Windows 8 tablet.

Just as I did this year, I’ll revisit these thoughts at the end of 2012 to see how well — or how badly — my prognostication skills are. Got any of your own predictions for mobile in 2012? Share them in the comments!

Image courtesy Flickr user islandguy

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This Is The Letter That Got Mark Hurd Fired As CEO Of HP

Well, There’s No Longer Any Mystery Why HP Fired Mark Hurd

Emails Sent By Mark Hurd’s Accuser Jodie Fisher Have Leaked

Now the the sexual-harassment letter that led to Mark Hurd’s ouster as the CEO of HP has finally been released, we likely know all we’re ever going to know about the affair.

As I discussed earlier, the letter helps make clear why the HP board fired Mark Hurd, and why they really had no choice but to do so.

The letter, and the investigation that followed, suggest that Hurd used HP’s money and resources to effectively set up intimate dates for him with Fisher around the world; encounters during which Fisher maintains he kept trying to persuade her to have sex with him.

And when the truth about these encounters came out, via expense reports, computer forensics, and interviews, the HP board concluded that, in addition to using HP’s resources inappropriately, Hurd had initially lied to them about the affair.

So they canned him.

Of course, some people still view Jodie Fisher as a washed-up gold-digger who played along with (or even actively encouraged) Hurd’s intimacy, and then fabricated the sexual advances in hindsight to extort money from him.

But no one’s denying all those drinks and dinners and hotel-room visits and other intimate encounters. And it’s likely that no one but Hurd and Fisher will ever know the precise truth of what went on in those hotel rooms.

So it’s worth nailing down the morals of the story, if only as a cautionary tale for all those who, deliberately or accidentally, mix sexually charged intimacy (or just plain sex) with business.

THE MORALS OF THE MARK HURD STORY

• Assume that any time you have an intimate dinner or drinks or hotel-room visits or other one-on-one encounters with a subordinate of the opposite sex — or, if one of you is homosexual, a subordinate of the same sex — that the encounter may later be cited as sexual harassment.
• Ergo, don’t have intimate dinners or drinks or hotel-room visits or other one-on-one encounters with a subordinate of the opposite sex unless there is a crystal-clear business reason for doing so.
• If you go ahead and have intimate dinners or drinks or hotel-room visits, et al, with a subordinate, look yourself in the mirror afterwards and be honest about what you’re really doing.
• If what you’re really doing is trying to seduce the subordinate — or merely hoping that such encounters will lead to mutual-seduction — then have a come-to-Jesus meeting with yourself.
• Ask yourself: Am I willing to get myself accused of sexual harassment and lose my job over this?
• If the answer is “yes,” damn the torpedoes: Order up a big bottle of wine and drink the night away. (But, whatever you do, don’t expense it.)
• If the answer is “no,” ask yourself whether you can stop having these intimate encounters.
• If the answer is “yes, I can stop,” stop, and hope you haven’t already screwed yourself over.
• If the answer is “no, I can’t stop” proceed to Plan B.
• PLAN B: 
• Tell the subordinate that you can no longer work closely with him/her because of feelings you have developed for him/her (Goofy and awkward? Yes. But the truth. And in a professional situation, people deserve the truth.)
• Tell the subordinate that you will work with Human Resources to resolve the professional situation — and actually do this, with a written record, immediately.
• Once the professional situation is resolved, ask the former subordinate out on a personal date (or whatever it is you would do to advance the relationship)
• Never expense anything that you and the former subordinate did together — meals, drinks, hotels, etc.
• Take extra care to make certain that your business expenses, travel records, and communications are accurate and aren’t used to hide your relationship.
• Hope that the former subordinate doesn’t eventually get pissed off at you and accuse you of sexual harassment retroactively … but also rest assured that, if that happens, you’ve done everything you can to protect yourself from this while still proceeding with the relationship.
• Never lie about the relationship to your bosses or human resources.
• Never use company resources to facilitate the relationship. (If you’re headed to Shanghai for a night and Shanghai’s just so romantic you can’t stand to be alone, fly your former subordinate over yourself. And make sure that you or he/she makes their own plane and hotel reservations, not your assistant.)
• Assume that every detail of the relationship will eventually be investigated.

Got that?

That’s how to have an intimate relationship with a subordinate that begins in the workplace while also giving yourself the best odds of keeping your reputation and job (if not marriage).

If Mark Hurd had just come clean about his inappropriate-and-HP-funded relationship with Fisher, a source close to the HP board told me yesterday, he’d probably still be CEO of HP today. It was his initial downplaying of the relationship, and the apparent attempt to hide it, that cost him his job.

You have been warned!

SEE ALSO: Well, There’s No Longer Any Mystery Why HP Fired Mark Hurd

Image: Associated Press

See Also:

This Is The Letter That Got Mark Hurd Fired As CEO Of HP

Well, There’s No Longer Any Mystery Why HP Fired Mark Hurd

Emails Sent By Mark Hurd’s Accuser Jodie Fisher Have Leaked

Now the the sexual-harassment letter that led to Mark Hurd’s ouster as the CEO of HP has finally been released, we likely know all we’re ever going to know about the affair.

As I discussed earlier, the letter helps make clear why the HP board fired Mark Hurd, and why they really had no choice but to do so.

The letter, and the investigation that followed, suggest that Hurd used HP’s money and resources to effectively set up intimate dates for him with Fisher around the world; encounters during which Fisher maintains he kept trying to persuade her to have sex with him.

And when the truth about these encounters came out, via expense reports, computer forensics, and interviews, the HP board concluded that, in addition to using HP’s resources inappropriately, Hurd had initially lied to them about the affair.

So they canned him.

Of course, some people still view Jodie Fisher as a washed-up gold-digger who played along with (or even actively encouraged) Hurd’s intimacy, and then fabricated the sexual advances in hindsight to extort money from him.

But no one’s denying all those drinks and dinners and hotel-room visits and other intimate encounters. And it’s likely that no one but Hurd and Fisher will ever know the precise truth of what went on in those hotel rooms.

So it’s worth nailing down the morals of the story, if only as a cautionary tale for all those who, deliberately or accidentally, mix sexually charged intimacy (or just plain sex) with business.

THE MORALS OF THE MARK HURD STORY

• Assume that any time you have an intimate dinner or drinks or hotel-room visits or other one-on-one encounters with a subordinate of the opposite sex — or, if one of you is homosexual, a subordinate of the same sex — that the encounter may later be cited as sexual harassment.
• Ergo, don’t have intimate dinners or drinks or hotel-room visits or other one-on-one encounters with a subordinate of the opposite sex unless there is a crystal-clear business reason for doing so.
• If you go ahead and have intimate dinners or drinks or hotel-room visits, et al, with a subordinate, look yourself in the mirror afterwards and be honest about what you’re really doing.
• If what you’re really doing is trying to seduce the subordinate — or merely hoping that such encounters will lead to mutual-seduction — then have a come-to-Jesus meeting with yourself.
• Ask yourself: Am I willing to get myself accused of sexual harassment and lose my job over this?
• If the answer is “yes,” damn the torpedoes: Order up a big bottle of wine and drink the night away. (But, whatever you do, don’t expense it.)
• If the answer is “no,” ask yourself whether you can stop having these intimate encounters.
• If the answer is “yes, I can stop,” stop, and hope you haven’t already screwed yourself over.
• If the answer is “no, I can’t stop” proceed to Plan B.
• PLAN B: 
• Tell the subordinate that you can no longer work closely with him/her because of feelings you have developed for him/her (Goofy and awkward? Yes. But the truth. And in a professional situation, people deserve the truth.)
• Tell the subordinate that you will work with Human Resources to resolve the professional situation — and actually do this, with a written record, immediately.
• Once the professional situation is resolved, ask the former subordinate out on a personal date (or whatever it is you would do to advance the relationship)
• Never expense anything that you and the former subordinate did together — meals, drinks, hotels, etc.
• Take extra care to make certain that your business expenses, travel records, and communications are accurate and aren’t used to hide your relationship.
• Hope that the former subordinate doesn’t eventually get pissed off at you and accuse you of sexual harassment retroactively … but also rest assured that, if that happens, you’ve done everything you can to protect yourself from this while still proceeding with the relationship.
• Never lie about the relationship to your bosses or human resources.
• Never use company resources to facilitate the relationship. (If you’re headed to Shanghai for a night and Shanghai’s just so romantic you can’t stand to be alone, fly your former subordinate over yourself. And make sure that you or he/she makes their own plane and hotel reservations, not your assistant.)
• Assume that every detail of the relationship will eventually be investigated.

Got that?

That’s how to have an intimate relationship with a subordinate that begins in the workplace while also giving yourself the best odds of keeping your reputation and job (if not marriage).

If Mark Hurd had just come clean about his inappropriate-and-HP-funded relationship with Fisher, a source close to the HP board told me yesterday, he’d probably still be CEO of HP today. It was his initial downplaying of the relationship, and the apparent attempt to hide it, that cost him his job.

You have been warned!

SEE ALSO: Well, There’s No Longer Any Mystery Why HP Fired Mark Hurd

Image: Associated Press

See Also:

This Is The Letter That Got Mark Hurd Fired As CEO Of HP

Well, There’s No Longer Any Mystery Why HP Fired Mark Hurd

Emails Sent By Mark Hurd’s Accuser Jodie Fisher Have Leaked

Now the the sexual-harassment letter that led to Mark Hurd’s ouster as the CEO of HP has finally been released, we likely know all we’re ever going to know about the affair.

As I discussed earlier, the letter helps make clear why the HP board fired Mark Hurd, and why they really had no choice but to do so.

The letter, and the investigation that followed, suggest that Hurd used HP’s money and resources to effectively set up intimate dates for him with Fisher around the world, encounters during which Fisher maintains he kept trying to persuade her to have sex with him.

And when the truth about these encounters came out, via expense reports, computer forensics, and interviews, the HP board concluded that, in addition to using HP’s resources inappropriately, Hurd had initially lied to them about the affair.

So they canned him.

Of course, some people still view Jodie Fisher as a washed-up gold-digger who played along with (or even actively encouraged) Hurd’s intimacy, and then fabricated the sexual advances in hindsight to extort money from him.

But no one’s denying all those drinks and dinners and hotel-room visits and other intimate encounters. And it’s likely that no one but Hurd and Fisher will ever know the precise truth of what went on in those hotel rooms.

So it’s worth nailing down the morals of the story, if only as a cautionary tale for all those who, deliberately or accidentally, mix sexually charged intimacy (or just plain sex) with business.

THE MORALS OF THE MARK HURD STORY

• Assume that any time you have an intimate dinner or drinks or hotel-room visits or other one-on-one encounters with a subordinate of the opposite sex–or, if one of you is homosexual, a subordinate of the same sex–that the encounter may later be cited as sexual harassment.
• Ergo, don’t have intimate dinners or drinks or hotel-room visits or other one-on-one encounters with a subordinate of the opposite sex unless there is a crystal-clear business reason for doing so.
• If you go ahead and have intimate dinners or drinks or hotel-room visits, et al, with a subordinate, look yourself in the mirror afterwards and be honest about what you’re really doing.
• If what you’re really doing is trying to seduce the subordinate–or merely hoping that such encounters will lead to mutual-seduction–then have a come-to-Jesus meeting with yourself.
• Ask yourself: Am I willing to get myself accused of sexual harassment and lose my job over this?
• If the answer is “yes,” damn the torpedoes: Order up a big bottle of wine and drink the night away. (But, whatever you do, don’t expense it.)
• If the answer is “no,” ask yourself whether you can stop having these intimate encounters.
• If the answer is “yes, I can stop,” stop, and hope you haven’t already screwed yourself over.
• If the answer is “no, I can’t stop” proceed to Plan B.
• PLAN B: 
• Tell the subordinate that you can no longer work closely with him/her because of feelings you have developed for him/her (Goofy and awkward? Yes. But the truth. And in a professional situation, people deserve the truth.)
• Tell the subordinate that you will work with Human Resources to resolve the professional situation–and actually do this, with a written record, immediately.
• Once the professional situation is resolved, ask the former subordinate out on a personal date (or whatever it is you would do to advance the relationship)
• Never expense anything that you and the former subordinate did together–meals, drinks, hotels, etc.
• Take extra care to make certain that your business expenses, travel records, and communications are accurate and aren’t used to hide your relationship
• Hope that the former subordinate doesn’t eventually get pissed off at you and accuse you of sexual harassment retroactively…but also rest assured that, if that happens, you’ve done everything you can to protect yourself from this while still proceeding with the relationship.
• Never lie about the relationship to your bosses or human resources.
• Never use company resources to facilitate the relationship. (If you’re headed to Shanghai for a night and Shanghai’s just so romantic you can’t stand to be alone, fly your former subordinate over yourself. And make sure that you or he/she makes their own plane and hotel reservations, not your assistant.)
• Assume that every detail of the relationship will eventually be investigated.

Got that?

That’s how to have an intimate relationship with a subordinate that begins in the workplace while also giving yourself the best odds of keeping your reputation and job (if not marriage).

If Mark Hurd had just come clean about his inappropriate-and-HP-funded relationship with Fisher, a source close to the HP board told me yesterday, he’d probably still be CEO of HP today. It was his initial downplaying of the relationship, and the apparent attempt to hide it, that cost him his job.

You have been warned!

SEE ALSO: Well, There’s No Longer Any Mystery Why HP Fired Mark Hurd

Fisker Automotive should have ended the year on a good note – after several delays, the startup finally began delivering its first-ever car, plug-in hybrid Karma, to customers in the second half of 2011. Instead, the company is recalling 239 Karmas over faulty batteries made by A123 Systems

The National Highway Transportation Safety Board posted a notice this week for recalling 239 cars that were made from July 1 through Nov. 3 this year. The problem: hose clamps of the lithium-ion batteries that “may have been positioned incorrectly during assembly.” If that were the case, the hose could get caught by the battery compartment cover and lead to a coolant leak. And if the coolant gets inside the battery, then it could cause an electrical short cuicuit and catch fire. Fisker plans to replace the batteries in those cars.

The recall presents a substantial setback for California-based Fisker, which began delivering the Karma over the past summer. The company’s initial plan was to start shipping the car in 2009 and become profitable in 2011. This Summer the company again delayed shipment of the cars because the proper state and federal certifications hadn’t been met (those have been met now).

Fisker is not the first electric car startup to postpone new car launches, but needless to say, executing the launch when it does finally happen is crucial for the financial health and reputation of a young company.

The 239 cars being recalled represent a good chunk of the Karmas it had rolled out of the assembly lines before it caught the problem. Fisker’s CEO, Henrik Fisker, told Bloomberg on Dec. 21 that it had shipped 225 Karmas to dealers and the company was making 25 cars per day.

The company first reported the battery problem on Dec. 21, according to the transportation safety board’s notice. A123 disclosed the hose clamp issue on Dec. 23 and said it was looking at fixing the problem in fewer than 50 cars. Fisker also posted an undated note that said it was replacing battery packs in 50 cars and was “making modifications to address the issue in the more than 1,200 Karmas already produced and in production.”

Fisker already has raised over $1 billion in loans, grants and equity by April this year and is backed by high-profile venture capital investors such as Advanced Equities, Kleiner Perkins, NEA and A123. Fisker won a $528.7 million loan from the U.S. Department of energy back in September 2009. The same program doled out funds to electric car maker Tesla Motors, which went public, and large automakers Ford Motor and Nissan North America. Fisker was one of the few startups, along with Tesla, to get funding from the program.

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Twitter Just Fired A Cannonball At Facebook And Google+

Google+ Brand Pages Are Showing Up In Search Results — Here’s Why That Could Be A Problem

Google+ Is Adding More Than 600,000 New Users EACH DAY*

Google’s +1 buttons appear on more retail websites than Facebook share buttons or Twitter buttons according to an analysis by Darren Herman, chief digital officer at The Media Kitchen, a media planning and buying firm.

The finding is both surprising and logical. It’s surprising because Google’s +1 buttons are relatively new. It’s logical because any smart retailer is going to do whatever Google wants in the hopes of getting better search placement.

Herman worked with Evidon, which tracks online ad tags, to see what ad technology and social buttons were on 20 major retail sites. The sites looked at were: Best Buy, CouponCabin, Sports Authority, LL Bean, Gap, Dicks Sporting Goods, Bed Bath Beyond, SVPPLY, DSW.com, Modells, Zappos, Old Navy, Disney, Target, Walmart, Gilt, Sears, Amazon, NewEgg, and Piperlime.

According to his research, the Google +1 button is on 45% of sites versus 40% for Facebook like buttons, and 15% for Twitter share buttons.

What does the +1 button do, exactly? It sends a signal to Google that you like what you see. And if you’re on Google+, it might show up in your stream.

It’s supposed to be another signal Google can use to refine it’s search engine. Most normal web users probably don’t understand this, but for a retailer looking to get better search results, it doesn’t hurt to throw up a +1 button to make Google happy.

For more on what Herman found head over to his blog post. One more key takeaway: Google is involved in ad serving every step of the way →

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Image: Geekologie

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THE APPLE INVESTOR: The Largest U.S. Newspaper Publisher Drops Bank On Apple Products

THE APPLE INVESTOR: 2012 Will Usher In A New Era For Apple

THE APPLE INVESTOR: Get Ready For New Devices In 2012

AAPL Up In Down Market
Stocks are off on the final trading day of the year. Shares of AAPL, however, are up as investors look towards earnings season. Catalysts include iPhone upgrade cycles and adoption; update to the iPad in early 2012; continued market share growth of the Mac business line; penetration in China and emerging markets; the evolution and potential re-conception of Apple TV; and platforms such as Siri, mobile advertising (iAd), books and publishing, gaming, mapping and social (Ping). Shares of Apple trade at 9x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (including long-term marketable securities).

This Year At Apple: 2011 In Review (The Next Web)
Each year is a big year for Apple. This year is no different:

• Mac App Store Launch
• ATT Loses iPhone Exclusivity
• Surpasses 10 Billion App Downloads
• Designs For Spaceship Campus
• In-App Subscriptions Launch
• Mac OS X Lion And iOS 5
• Introduction of the iPad 2 And iPhone 4S
• Loss Of A Visionary, Steve Job Passes Away

And so much more.

Most Small And Mid-Sized Businesses Plan On Buying iPad (AppleInsider)
A new survey of small- and medium-sized businesses in the U.S. found that 73% plan to buy tens of thousands of dollars worth of tablets in the next 12 months, and most of those purchases will be Apple’s iPad, according to the NPD Group. This is in line with what Apple officials have repeatedly boasted. In the latest quarterly earnings call, executives revealed that 90% of the Fortune 500 were deploying or testing the iPad, just 18 months since it first debuted.

Apple Needs To Innovate To Keep In The Race (Financial Times)
Apple faces key challenges in refreshing some of its core product lines in the face of rising competition. The company faces competition from all angles: Android, cheaper tablets, etc. And industry analysts believe Apple needs to do much more in 2012 in to stay ahead of rivals as well as retain employees. Meaning, exploring new areas of technology. The company has led the market over the last decade and competitors have begun to be “fast followers.” We’ll see if they can keep it up.

App Downloads Up 83% From Last Year (TechCrunch)
Marketing technology company Fiksu tracked the impact of the iPhone 4S on iPhone app downloads and found that download volume of the top 200 free apps increased 15% from October’s previous record high of 4.91 million daily downloads. That’s a remarkable number, when you think about it. And it shows how it’s very much still the early days for the mobile app ecosystem. 

Apple To Unveil Two Versions Of Next-Generation iPad? (DigiTimes)
Apple is set to unveil its next-generation iPad, which will come in two versions, at iWorld (scheduled for January 26, 2012 and not an official Apple event) according to sources at supply chain partners. The new models will demonstrate Apple’s complete iPad series targeting the entry-level, mid-range and high-end market segments. The iPad 2 will be competing directly with Amazon’s Kindle Fire in the price-sensitive market segment, while the new models will focus on the mid-range and high-end segments respectively. I don’t know. Sounds bogus to me.

Apple’s Patent War Is Hurting The Company… (BusinessWeek)
Steve Jobs told his biographer that he’d rather wage “thermonuclear war” with Google than make deals to share its technology. That was no empty threat. That said Kevin Rivette, a managing partner at 3LP Advisors, believes “it doesn’t optimize the value of their patents — because people will get around them. It’s like a dam. Using their patents to keep rivals out of the market is like putting rocks in a stream. The stream is going to find a way around. Wouldn’t it be better to direct where the water goes?” Working toward settlements sooner would help Apple and its rivals maintain the fast pace of innovation.

…However Apple Could Get $10 Per Android Handset (Business Insider)
As Apple continues to fight its patent war against Android manufacturers, those rivals are still finding ways to skirt around the patents. The result could be Apple taking as much as $10 per Android handset sold. It’s not as outrageous as it sounds. Microsoft already snags $5 for ever HTC handset sold, thanks to a patent settlement between the two companies.

This post is part of our ReadWriteCloud channel, which is dedicated to covering virtualization and cloud computing. The channel is sponsored by Intel and VMware. Read the case study about how Intel Xeon processors and VMware helped virtualize 12 business critical database applications.

I got all excited this morning when I saw a link on Hacker News to BitPocket, one of the latest so-called “DIY Dropbox” offerings that’s open source. The excitement faded pretty quickly when I hit the GitHub repo and found that it’s just a “small but smart script that does 2-way directory synchronization” without most of the Dropbox features.

Dropbox didn’t get where it is today by being a wrapper for rsync, Git, Unison or any of the other open source tools for file synchronization. If you want to replicate Dropbox’s suceess, there’s a few features that are mandatory.

Top-Notch Synchronization

The biggest failing that Bitpocket has is the lack of automatic sync. As I’m writing this post (in Vim, using Markdown on my MacBook Pro), Dropbox is syncing it with my iMac and my Linux Mint computer as well as with the Dropbox service.

It’s doing it silently, without any intervention or extra setup on my part. Before Dropbox, I used rsync over SSH to sync my files to rsync.net and my other computers. It was workable, but not particularly convenient. It took about ten minutes for me to decide to plunk down the monthly fee for Dropbox after discovering the LAN sync feature in Dropbox.

Platform Ubiquity

Another feature that any Dropbox challenger needs? Platform ubiquity. If it doesn’t run on Windows, Mac OS X, Linux, iOS and Android, I’m not interested.

Technically, I’m actually OK with a service that doesn’t run on Windows, but the sheer number of folks who use Windows means that any Dropbox alternative is pretty much DOA without a Windows client. And there’s very little attraction to any tool that doesn’t sync with my mobile device.

Web Access

If I’m not on a computer I control, I still want to be able to get to a file in a pinch. Dropbox’s Web interface is perfect for the few times I don’t have my own computer handy, or haven’t gotten around to installing Dropbox yet. Since I tend to do a lot of testing, it’s not uncommon for me to set up a new box without wanting to hassle with installing Dropbox when I’m going to be wiping a system in a few days. (Not that Dropbox is all that hard to install.)

Revision Control and File Restore

Revision control and file restore are features I don’t use often, but are worth the price of Dropbox even if I use them just twice a year.

I admit it, I’ve fat-fingered rm once or twice in 2011, and saved over a file in LibreOffice that I didn’t mean to. Revision control and file restore mean that I’ve been able to recover gracefully with zero loss of data. Unless an alternative can give me that, I’m not switching.

Sharing

Finally, I need to be able to share files with co-workers and friends. Dropbox makes this dirt simple, even for other folks that don’t use Dropbox.

Falling Short

Bitpocket and other sync scripts and tools may be acceptable for some use cases, but they don’t rise to the “Dropbox” label. Up-and-coming projects like SparkleShare may be nifty collaboration tools, but they’re not a Dropbox replacement.

I’d love to see an open source, DIY alternative to Dropbox, but so far none have come close.

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I got all excited this morning when I saw a link on Hacker News to BitPocket, one of the latest so-called “DIY Dropbox” offerings that’s open source. The excitement faded pretty quickly when I hit the GitHub repo and found that it’s just a “small but smart script that does 2-way directory synchronization” without most of the Dropbox features. nnDropbox didn’t get where it is today by being a wrapper for rsync, Git, Unison or any of the other open source tools for file synchronization. If you want to replicate Dropbox’s suceess, there’s a few features that are mandatory.
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Editor’s note: This story is part of a series we call Redux, where we’re re-publishing some of our best posts of 2011. As we look back at the year – and ahead to what next year holds – we think these are the stories that deserve a second glance. It’s not just a best-of list, it’s also a collection of posts that examine the fundamental issues that continue to shape the Web. We hope you enjoy reading them again and we look forward to bringing you more Web products and trends analysis in 2012. Happy holidays from Team ReadWriteWeb!

Frictionless sharing is not the only problem, but it’s the straw that broke the proverbial dromedary’s back. Passive sharing is not a feature I hear other users clamoring for. The value of observing every action online is of little value to users, but of far too much value to Facebook and the lot.

Social Media as Game of Telephone

Social media means, more than ever, little control of your message. As an individual, you surrender control of distribution. As publisher, you surrender the notion that the receiver will have actually read the source. Too often, I’ve noticed that I garner far more feedback on articles via Google Plus and Facebook than on the site that hosts the articles.

This would be fine, except for one little problem – all too few of the commentators take the time to actually read the article or post in question. This becomes abundantly clear when you see howls of outrage in response to features on The Onion because the reader had no idea they were responding to a satirical article.

My friends in PR and marketing may complain that companies are losing control of their message. Some argue that it’s well and fine that companies lose control of their message, because it forces engagement directly with the audience. That’s true, as far as it goes, but it misses the larger point. Social media has not only wrested control of message, it’s made it incredibly difficult to ensure accuracy of the message. It’s one thing that organizations have less ability to spin, yet another when they’re faced with a 21st century game of telephone.

When a publication gets things wrong, a correction may not receive the same level of attention as an inaccurate headline or story. But when a tweet heard round the world is wrong, making a correction is next to impossible. That’s not the only problem with using a handful of social media tools as the hub of conversation and information discovery.

Expression Depends on Tools

Marshall McLuhan said “the medium is the message,” and he wasn’t wrong. How you say something, the medium that you choose, is often as important as what you say. And, of course, what you say is shaped by where you say it. Our dependence on social media means that we have to conform our messages to the tools, with the predictable deleterious results.

Just by broadcasting your thoughts on a social network, your message is shaped and colored by that medium. Twitter is immediate, short and ephemeral. It’s sending smoke signals in the hopes they’ll be received and relayed. Conversations are terse by necessity. I enjoy the challenge, sometimes, of fitting a thought into 140 characters (chalk it up to J-School damage). It’s of limited value when there’s more to share than fits in 140 characters, but by limiting its scope I think Twitter also limits the damage. No one expects to carry on all of their conversations on Twitter.

Privacy Roulette

The same can’t be said for Facebook, which would happily engulf all of our online discourse, and then some. Facebook allows for more lengthy discourse, and the ability to “like” (but not dislike) a sender’s message. Comments, however, are mandatory. It’s always somewhat unclear who will receive your message, given Facebook’s ever-shifting privacy policies and controls.

Call it privacy roulette. Sometimes you want your updates to be received by everyone, but Facebook opts to display them only to a sliver of your audience based on its importance algorithms. Sometimes you want to control your audience, but Facebook’s privacy controls are so complex it’s never quite clear who can and can’t see your messages. You’re not assured that someone will or won’t see a message, at all.

Google Plus is more straightforward, but the oracle in Mountain View has decreed that we must all be our literal selves online and not more comfortable pseudonymous personas. Businesses, as of yet, have no presence at all except through their spokespeople. While this suggests that communications from companies will be “more personal” it also forces the identity of a company onto the individual. If Acme Corporation hopes to have a voice on Google Plus, it must do so via its employees.

Google Plus has, in my opinion, better technical tools for expression and better privacy options, with the exception of its onerous pseudonym policies (and vigorous enforcement). Google also has well-publicized tools for extracting your data, should you choose to leave Google Plus. However, this is not the same thing as being able to extract your data from, say, WordPress. You cannot simply pick up and re-host your content on a competing network. You can take your toys and go home, but you can’t play with them there.

In all cases, you surrender control of your platform to the owner of the network. This is illustrated quite well by the collapse of MySpace. Bands (it always seems to be bands) that built up a following on MySpace cannot easily move that following to another social network, or to their own site. Companies that build up a loyal following on Twitter or Facebook (they’re not yet welcome on Google Plus) can’t move that following to a competing network.

Feeding the Beast

The problems I’ve mentioned so far would not be so bad if social media were avoidable. Companies and media are embracing, out of necessity, the intermediaries as a way to reach the audience we wish to connect with. As Adrian Short so rightly pointed out, avoiding social media is not an option for most individuals or companies. “We need to use social networks to get heard and this forces us into digital serfdom.” The right to avoid social networks, as Short says, is the right to be ignored.

Indeed, it’s a vicious cycle. If you’re not on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Google Plus or whatever comes, then your chances of being “heard” are far more remote than just a few years ago. Holding out seems futile, participating makes the problem worse. Short asks how long before social networks are essential, I’d argue they already are, but only because we’ve collectively decided that it’s OK.

You Get the Web You Deserve

Like Short, I’m not sure I have an answer except this: moderation.

We cannot depend on Facebook to be moderate in its attempts to be the center of the Web. The answer is not a kinder, gentler and less privacy abusive alternative to Facebook.

The answer is to moderate our use of and dependence on Facebook. Like moderating diet, drink, television consumption or any other pleasurable but ultimately damaging-if-done-in-excess activity it is up to individuals. If we cannot do this, the fault lies only with us.

The damage being done by excessive social media is every bit as real as the damage done by a steady diet of bacon cheeseburgers and no exercise, and just as slow to become obvious. Frictionless sharing is the cardiac event that should signal it’s time to cut back on the endless diet of bacon cheeseburgers. Stop feeding the beast, and start using social media in moderation.

Image: Dan Frommer, Business Insider

See Also:

11 Huge Gadget Releases Coming In 2012

Microsoft’s Impressive Lineup Of Windows Phones For Early 2012 Just Leaked

Why Did This Kickstarter Project Raise $400,000?

This year was a great year for gadgets.

We got a brand new iPad, some impressive Android tablets, and a new wave of super-thin Ultrabooks that will eventually replace the traditional laptop.

But then there were the duds.

A lot of companies tried to push the boundaries by inventing new categories, but ended up creating flops instead. Others attempted to copy successful products like the iPad and iPhone but created pricey, underpowered gizmos.

We took a look back at 2011′s worst stuff. Keep reading to find out what we came up with.